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Nanotech Insights #10

2008-05-08T10:35:00.000-07:00

Nanotech Insights #10

April 29, 2008

Dear Small & Advanced Technology Investor,

“When you get $12 for soybeans and $6 for corn and you see that steel and oil are soaring . . . yes, there is a lot of potential inflation down the road” . . . . further, commenting on GDP growth of anything under 1%/year when population growth is about 1%/year . . . “Yeah, I think we are in a recession.”

Warren Buffett – CNBC Interview: April 28, 2008

We concur.

That’s why the next 2-3 years will be so exciting for establishing long-term investment positions and joining with great scientific, technical and executive teams to build profitable corporate outcomes.

This is probably our last Nanotech Insights. They began in October of 2007 and were meant to explore the state of early 2008 nanotech investing. You can find them archived on BlogNano’s “previous posts” at http://www.nanotechnology.com/blogs/blognano/index.html. The buying opportunity period we have been talking about for nearly 5 years is upon us. Writing these Insights has been enjoyable, but we have to focus our efforts and attention on serving our corporate finance and investor clients, now.

Now, let’s orient via the overall stock market: We remain nervous bulls, but expect the market to top before June 10 (the Dow 30 remains the strongest index) and possibly before the end of next week. From there, we look for a continuation of the bear market to important lows sometime between September 2008 and December 2009.

Our records show the last half position of BNT was sold at $15.29 for a substantial, short-term profit.

TINY strengthened as we predicted. We would cancel our unfilled orders in TGAL and NVAX.

We were wrong on NVEC, which rallied to 32, while SMMX, KEI, SRDX, BPAX and FLML all performed as expected. We have no opinion on these now.

The “nimble” among you would have bought NGEN at $0.43 (we would carry a stop loss at 0.35 and raise that 1 cent/day until stopped out). You would have bought CHRT at $5.58 (we would carry a stop loss at $5.40 and raise it 2 cents/day until stopped out). You would have bought KOPN at $2.64 (we would carry a protective stop at 2.69 and raise it 3 cents/day until stopped out).

Obviously, we are not so excited by the illiquid stocks in the paragraph above, and given our views on the stock market, this seems a logical, lowered risk, way to exit.

Specific instructions were given for the semiconductor stocks below, and you can see what we believe to be superior results for yourself.

I hope that you made the profits!

TSRA – We would have bought it at $20 and sold for a loss at $19.24.

FORM – We would have bought it at $19.10 and sold for a small loss at $18.64.

ADI – We would have bought it at $29.75 and would carry with a protective stop at $31.39 and raise the stop 10 cents/day until stopped out for a good profit.

MTSC – We would have bought it at $31.01 and would carry a protective stop at 33.64 and raise the stop 10 cents/day until stopped out for another good profit.

CCMP – We would have bought at $31.87 and would carry a protective stop at $33.09 and raise the stop 10 cents/day until stopped out for another good one.

ALTR – We would have bought at $18.10 and would carry a protective stop at 20.88 and raise the stop 10 cents/day until stopped out for a great profit.

XLNX – We would have bought it at $23.11 and sold it for a tiny loss at $22.89.

Wow . . 3 small losers vs. 4 giant winners . . . Our public record of success since March 2006 continues, and we are very happy with our proprietary stock trading technology (especially when informed by our in-house, scientific, technical and engineering expertise).

The time has come to close this series of communications with our closest subscribers. While you Insights readers are a small and rather special, self-selected group within our more than 25,000 Nanotechnology.com subscribers, the time for action has come. Our team’s thoughts about the markets, business model, investment philosophy and basic premises are well known. We must now focus on our clientele. Investments must be thoroughly scrutinized and made; extensive scientific, technical and business due-diligence must be performed, board direction, deep consultation and business advisory services provided. Capital must be raised. Our corporate and individual clients deserve The Nanotech Company, LLC and its Scientific Advisory Board’s first and best, undistracted advice.

Again: This is probably our last Nanotech Insights. They began in October of 2007 and were meant to explore the state of early 2008 nanotech investing. You can find them archived on BlogNano’s “previous posts” at http://www.nanotechnology.com/blogs/blognano/index.html. The buying opportunity period we have been talking about for nearly 5 years is upon us. Writing these Insights has been enjoyable, but we have to focus our efforts and attention on serving our corporate finance and investor clients, now.

Best regards and wishes of success, health and prosperity for you and yours,

Darrell Brookstein

darrell@Nanotechnology.com

Disclosures and Disclaimers

GENERAL TERMS*

No investment opinion or other advice is being rendered on any stock or company. All of the trading stocks we recommend should be considered highly speculative; you can lose some or all of your money. It should be assumed that the Author and editor and their associates may hold or dispose of or trade in positions in any securities mentioned at any time. No fee in cash, shares or options was paid for this report. Please be responsible for understanding the terms and vocabulary of stock market investing. Here is an unaffiliated glossary site that may be useful:

http://www.traders.com/Documentation/RESource_docs/Glossary/glossary.html

Disclaimer

The Nanotech Company, LLC, Darrell Brookstein and/or Resource Development, Inc. are not registered investment advisors nor broker/dealers. Readers are advised that the material contained herein should be used solely for informational purposes. The

Author does not purport to tell, or suggest to, readers which investment securities they should buy or sell for themselves. Readers should always conduct their own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. The Author will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader's reliance on information obtained in any of our newsletters, special reports or on our web site or sent by email or mail. Our readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions. The information contained herein does not constitute a representation by the publisher or a solicitation for the purchase or sale of securities. Our opinions and analyses are based on sources believed to be reliable and are written in good faith, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. All information contained in our newsletters or on our web site should be independently verified with the companies mentioned. The editor and publisher are not responsible for typographical or other errors or omissions. There is no guarantee of investment results herein whatsoever, either explicit or implied. Past results are no guarantee of future results or even profitability. Investors are cautioned that they may lose all or a portion of their investment if they make a purchase or short sale in these speculative stocks.

Nanotech Insights #9

2008-04-28T09:32:00.000-07:00

April 15, 2008

edited for website posting

Dear Small & Advanced Technology Investor,

60 Minutes did a very interesting take on nanoparticles used in cancer therapeutics: a technology with which we are quite familiar. You can view it now if you missed it and read the accompanying article here: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/04/10/60minutes/main4006951_page3.shtml

The changes in science and technology are coming so fast that one noted scientist recently stated. “things change faster than you can publish them.”

Let this be “a word to the wise”, when, as an investor, you think you are on to something unique. Finding a “robust” technology, one that keeps working efficiently and economically, no matter what you throw at it is usually good enough, if you have the right team.

Despite the neat 60 Minutes video above, we don’t particularly like the biotech/medical side of “small tech” investments and stocks at current levels and in this timeframe. The price action is not good, especially compared to the semiconductor side. (see below)

The U.S. economy is now faced with choices of a man atop a burning, 2-story building. He can make a terrible choice with known consequences by jumping and breaking his legs (inflate, regulate and bailout which will cause significant and harmful, but fairly well understood consequences), or he can face the unknown and wait or run into the fire hoping for it to be put out before reaching him or finding an opening to an escape. The results would likely be catastrophic, but he might survive (this equates to doing more tinkering around the edges or letting the weak markets crash and hoping for positive results - the outcomes are unknown but could range from all kinds of “nastiness” like Japan in the early 1990’s and forward, to Germany’s hyperinflation prior to World War II).

Luckily, as of now, we’re only on a 2-story building! Unfortunately, that could change, and many stories added, if we continue down the path on which we have been.

Now, let’s orient via the overall stock market: While we remain above the important 130.50 number in SPY we mentioned last month and the ALL important 125.99 in the SPY, the 136-138 area proved the resistance we thought it would be and we’re well off that.

If you have been following our recommendations, you are long only half of your position in BNT. With very good profits on the first half, we would raise our stop on the second half to an even better $15.29, and let that take us out, or the takeover itself will; whichever comes first. (which we luckily caught before the takeover announcement by TEVA)

We had a loss in AATI.

We have taken good profits in ADI.

We took good profits in ALTR.

We took a small loss in CCMP.

We made a profit in FORM.

We had a loss in MTSC.

We made a very good profit XLNX.

Nothing done in IVGN and we would cancel that order.

Overall, a record of which we are quietly proud, especially given the lack of trends in the markets since we made these trades.

In addition: we cautioned holders of PXN, TINY, saying (on March 25^th) that they were running up to important resistance over the next couple of days to couple of weeks, and that we would use that opportunity to sell. ACTL, we said, was a very strong stock, but looked “toppy” at then current levels, and one should look out for a sharp correction coming soon.

We nailed all three of those calls:

PXN topped at $14.91 nine trading days later. It then dropped to 13.75.

TINY topped at $8.44 eight trading days after the 25^th and dropped to $7.32!

ACTL topped at $15.70 five days later and dropped to 14.45.

Stay away from or short PXN and ACTL; but we have an opinion change on TINY, and now think it is looking constructive. We would not sell it here, and are actually looking for a buying entry point.

Here are some stocks in our universe to sell, avoid or short at current levels:

NVEC

SMMX

KEI

SRDX

BPAX

FLML

Here are some desperately illiquid stocks that we “like” above current levels if they can break there, however are difficult to recommend to anyone but the very nimble, because they hardly trade:

TGAL at $5.01
NGEN at $0.43
NVAX at $2.61
CHRT at $5.54
KOPN at $2.64

Here are some of those “small technology” semiconductor-related stocks we like and can be bought with very tight stop losses (a lowered risk strategy we really like and often pursue). Tread gingerly here. The overall market is no raging bull, and you do not want to buy any of these that trades through its stop loss first.

TSRA – We like it between $19.75 - $20.25 while carrying a stop loss at $19.24.

FORM – We would buy at $19 – 19.20 and carry a close stop at $18.64.

ADI – Can be bought below $29.85 and carry with a stop loss at $29.49.

MTSC – We would buy it if it can break above $31; then we would carry a stop loss at 30.29.

CCMP – Only if it goes above $31.80; then a stop loss at $30.99.