Ruminations on the Recent Rally

In general, small tech stocks have been in a bull market since May 2005, and the acceleration to nearly asymptotic has been dramatic since and important low marked in mid-October.

But all is not what nano-hype artists would have you believe.

Look at a chart of the SMH (semiconductor ETF) or the BBH (biotech ETF) or the SPLY (technology index) OR EVEN THE SPX (the bloomin' S&P!! for goshsakes)!

They've ALL followed the EXACT SAME PATTERN.

In other words, this is NOT a small technology phenomena at all. It is a TOTAL STOCK MARKET RALLY.

Fact is, investments in gold stocks, oil stocks and even stock brokerage stocks all look almost identical to so-called nanotech stocks.

Don't get so excited. The end is near. Look for another possible 4-9% upmove from here before the crying begins. I see a 10 - 16% decline in small technology stocks from CURRENT prices, in calendar 2006, as JUST the first landing place of a 6-30 month bear market.