The Killer App and Tipping Point for Nano

Since early 2002, it has seemed to me that the "tipping point" for nanotechnology - the point at which there is enough serious interest by investors to really start talking intelligently about "nanotech stocks" or small tech stocks as a group that could carry itself without an undercurrent of nervous giggling, was when 20% of the brokers and investors who identify themselves as "high-tech-oriented" (roughly 22% of all brokers and investors) were small technology-literate. This point would also mark the ability to begin the first of many "nanotech booms" and the opportunity to make a killing in related stocks.

That's 4-5% of the brokerage and investor community, or about 1 1/2 % of the adult population.

I estimate we're about 25-35% to that goal in October 2005. My and others' question has always been, what will trigger the tipping point? Time, a killer application, a nanotech-related movie or book, one or more hugely successful IPOs or an accumulation of nano-products? Until recently, I've been unsure, but now I have a prediction.

CNT (carbon nanotube) displays will likely trigger the first nanotech boom, as they beat all current HDTV displays in quality, energy consumption, cost to produce and own and become available at great prices at your local Circuit City in the mid 2006-end 2008 timeframe. By the way, this is exactly the same timeframe that I projected the first boom to start in Nanotech Fortunes As recently as eight months ago, after speaking with my Scientific Advisory Board member and one of the world's leading carbon nanotube research scientists, Dr. Ajayan, I was convinced that Motorola, Samsung, Toshiba, Dupont and the rest might be out of touch with the timeframes required to solve some physics and mass-manufacturing issues related to CNT-based display technologies. That changed for me this past Thursday when I received this cryptic message from the renowned scholar - "I would not be surprised if (an announcement that a commerical CNT-based display was available for purchase) . . became real. Let us hope so, for the sake of nanotubes . . " - and I might add, for the sake of the future of the public's positive orientation towards nanotechnology.

Within a few weeks or months of the successful launch of such a TV set, the clamor for nanotech investments will be deafening. The "tipping point" will be behind us.