Rare Element Resources Ltd: Strong Recommendation & the Second Way to “Skin a Cat” with Mining Share Profits
April 21, 2008
Dear Mining Insights Subscribers,
I haven’t spoken to my old mining stock friend, noted and universally respected gold stock guru, Bob Bishop, about Rare Element in a year, but I hear he is still a supporter and very large shareholder. I don’t believe he will hold it against me to remind you that this was one of his favorite holdings when he left the newsletter writing business.
However, Bob is not the only “believer”.
Newmont Mining Corporation (NEM - http://www.newmont.com/en/index.asp), one of the largest gold mining companies in the world, is a “believer” too, and that’s a pretty good couple of “opinion makers”.
By the way: if you want to receive my periodic updates on this and other exciting mining and natural resource shares, including my 10 Stocks to Buy at the End of April Tax Sell-off and Stocks for the 2nd Great Buying Opportunity of 2008 send me a note at:
Darrell Brookstein
darrell@ResourceDevelopment.com
When I wrote our first gold mining stock recommendation in 8 years in February (http://www.nanotechnology.com/blogs/blognano/2008/02/gold-mining-stock-for-nano-investors.html), I should have noted that my identification and recommendation of Animas Resources (ANI; ANIMF) at US $1.34 was based on one of several ways to “skin a cat” (make a huge profit) in mining investment.
Two of our favorite ways are to:
Identify value in a property or district before others do. (That’s Animas!)
Identify value in a property or district that others have already identified before the market monetizes it. (That’s Rare Element! . . . RES, for short, from now on)
Bob Bishop is/was not the only special junior gold stock newsletter writer. There are several. However, those not in that special group can do a reasonable to very good job assessing the value of a deposit (especially once it’s been delineated), but they typically have little or no experience valuing a mining company or stock, and even fewer have any ability to trade or understand the convoluted logic of the junior stock market. I have several decades’ long experience doing all three, and you are invited to review my relevant resume at the end of the Animas recommendation whose link is above.
And we’re certainly not even the second to recommend RES. Sharp friend, Brien Lundin of The Gold Newsletter, perceptive Lawrence Roulston of Resource Opportunities and up-and-comer Kevin Graham of grahamanalytics.com all wrote about Rare Element before us.
It bothers us not at all. Our goal is simply to make profit-exploding money for our readers.
In the early 1980s, when the Hemlo rush was starting, some of the district stocks ran 6:1 and 8:1 in a period of weeks and I thought long and hard about recommending some $6 stock that had been 75 cents a few months before. I’m glad we stuck to our valuation discipline and ignored the “top callers”. I believe we bought in and took profits about a year later above $25!
RES was priced significantly higher last summer; now, at $0.85 - $1.00 . . . much better! We began following the company more than a year ago, but only recently began recommending it to others. In our opinion, the price and timing are screaming right now. The catalyst or “trigger” for higher valuation is eminent. (see below)
Please note: Rare Element is an extremely illiquid stock at current levels ($0.80 - $1.00), and hardly any stock is available in that range; you will have to be very careful. Longer-term, we believe buying prices at $1.65 will look like bargains, and we expect a few natural sellers to appear between $1.25 and $1.50, but try to accumulate below that range if possible. We are counting on some liquidity coming into the market so you should not have to chase the stock now for three main reasons: 1. Canadian taxpayers will still be selling prior to April 30. 2. a recent financing is recently free-trading and at least another few weeks should provide a transfer from weak holders to stronger holders (like you), and 3. short term weakness in precious metals continues to back up our premise that the first major buying opportunity for junior mining shares for 2008 is the 6 weeks commencing April 1, 2008. (We will have a special report on the 2nd “Great Buying Opportunity” when it arrives later this year.)
Rare Element Resources Ltd: RES – TSX.V (RRLMF- U.S.)
Corporate Website: http://www.rareelementresources.com/s/Home.asp
Corporate Profile: http://www.24hgold.com/viewcompanyarticle.aspx?langue=en&articleid=215836&ref='%20new%20corporate%20profile
Shares – app. 23 million
Fully diluted – app. 26 million
Approximate price range March 18 - April 18 2008 – US $ 0.80 - $1.05
Approximate fully diluted market capitalization – US $23M
Recommendation: Accumulate and “buy” recommendation for speculative accounts at the recent range - $0.80 – 1.20 – This is an admittedly wide range; sophisticated investors, trying to accumulate a large position, should tread gently. However, we believe the chance for substantial gains in our indicated timeframe will payoff with significant returns for smaller investors whether they pay $0.90 or $1.30. We do not expect to see a significant number of shares available under $1.20; the stock appears very tight to us and at current level, sellers seem scarce.
Target: 2.0+ million ounces of gold to RES’s credit (app. 30% of project with Newmont; based on 6+ million ounces “drill indicated”) within 30 months. In addition, we look for a 2.0 million ounces of gold equivalent to RES’ credit in rare earth elements (REEs), which Newmont does not share. That’s 4.0+ million gold-equivalent ounces.
Potential valuation at exit based on 30 million shares and $150/drill indicated ounce (based on $850/oz gold): We see possible acquisition of the Rare Element’s share of the gold asset by Newmont for $225M - $350M, while RES’ rare element asset at the same mine driving RES to an additional $375M valuation: Total valuation: app. $600 – 700M within 40 months indicating a potential share price of above $20.
Rare Element Resources has two exciting opportunities on its Bear Lodge Property in Wyoming—gold and rare earths. Gold exploration is being conducted by Newmont Mining under the terms of a joint venture agreement (65-80/35-20 Newmont/RES). Rare earths, which are significant and occur persistently and are disseminated within the same ore bodies, are reserved for Rare Element (100%) and are being explored and evaluated by the Company.
What is the catalyst or “trigger” that we see impacting stock valuation, soon?
Three elements are coming together over the next two to four months:
- The company has not done a good job of communicating the value of its rare earth (REE) deposit in the past. We believe this will change dramatically soon with more information from the company by way of press releases and their investor relations and financial PR program because,
- RES just received a gigantic GIS database (Geographic Information System) on the project from Newmont, and that will help them with their own drilling planned this year to expand development of the REE asset, and
- Leading metallurgical consultants, Mountain States, are due with a report within 8 weeks on REE recovery issues, which will be instrumental in assessing the values per ton that might be recoverable in a live mining operation.
We believe we are ahead of the curve and the market in understanding the value to RES shareholders of this VERY SIGNIFICANT REE asset.
I don’t need to explain the value of gold to you. However, as Managing Director of the investment firm, The Nanotech Company, LLC, as well as www.Nanotechnology.com, I am uniquely positioned to tell you that rare earth elements have and will have TREMENDOUS impact as nanotech and many other advanced technologies influence every part of our lives and industries over the next few decades. To quote from Wikipedia – “Rare earth elements are incorporated into many modern technological devices, including superconductors, miniaturized magnets, electronic polishers, refining catalysts and hybrid car components. [4] Rare earth ions are used as the active ions in luminescent materials used in optoelectronics applications, most notably the Nd:YAG laser. Phosphors with rare earth dopants are also widely used in cathode ray tube technology such as television sets.”
More: on our site (www.Nanotechnology.com) we find 13 separate articles which mention the rare earth elements in uses related to nanotechnology alone (Become your own “expert” and see this page for links to the articles): http://nanotechnology.com/news/index.php?search=rare+earth&p=&x=0&y=0
Reading minds is impossible, but understanding how large international gold miners develop assets and mines is no secret. That Newmont seems to have exceeded its contractual obligations to develop the property at nearly every opportunity is very significant. One might think that $1 or 2M much less $300,000 is “nothing” to a major mining company to spend on a project joint ventured with a junior. Wrong!
Majors are tightfisted. They do not waste time or money except when necessary and no career-minded big company geologist wants to be overseeing development of anything that won’t likely be developed into a major mine.
They only spend more in a year, bring in more than the minimum drill rigs, do more than required by their written commitment when they see benefit to doing that. That means when they see something that grabs their attention.
Anymore, 5 to 7.5 million ounces of gold is THE MINIMUM starting point to develop and build a mine. That’s the minimum to “grab their attention”. Our independent contacts believe Newmont already “sees” 5 million plus ounces in the few, widely spaced holes they have drilled. Here are the two possible headlines we might be looking for sometime over the next 24 – 40 months:
“Newmont says Sundance Project (name of the Bear Lodge property joint venture) to be Developed with Potential 7.5+ M Ounces of Gold and Excellent Potential for Additional Deposits.”
“Rare Element says Bear Lodge’s 100%-owned Rare Earth Elements Disseminated Deposit Hosts Mineable Reserves of 2+M Gold-Equivalent Ounces in REEs.”
Let’s get a grip on REEs, because as you can see above, we’re saying there is a reasonable chance that the REEs, alone, constitute a very significant asset for RES shareholders.
Rare Earths
In addition to the gold mineralization, Bear Lodge hosts “one of the largest occurrences of disseminated rare earths in North America”, according to the US Geological Survey. All of the important rare-earth mineralization in the Bear Lodge Mountains is on RES’s claims. The RES exploration program conducted from 2004 through 2008 confirms previous drilling results, expands the rare-earth mineralized zone and includes metallurgical studies. The Company’s near-term 2008 goals are to complete the ongoing metallurgical testwork and to estimate a resource for the rare-earth mineralization, based on 16 historical drill holes plus 8 more recent holes drilled by Rare Element.
According to folks close to the company, the Bull Hill rare-earths target area, where most of the REEs are located, is located in the north-central core of the intrusive complex adjacent to several gold targets, including Carbon, Taylor, and Smith. Rare-earth mineralization is found in well-defined near-surface oxidized dikes and deeper carbonatite dikes within the Bull Hill breccia. Drill holes in the Bull Hill target have penetrated a dike swarm including one main dike ranging up to 15 m (50 ft) in true thickness. The dikes have been demonstrated to pinch and swell in both strike and dip directions and are open in these directions. The dike swarm has been traced with drill holes up to 300 m (1000 ft) along strike and 300 m (1000 ft) down dip.
Historical resources at Bull Hill, estimated by Hecla Mining Company in 1991, are approximately 4.3 million tons averaging 3.8% rare-earth oxides (REO)(non-compliant with NI 43-101 standards). The gross metal value of the mineralized material, not taking into account metallurgical recovery, is approximately $400 per ton (hey, that’s close to ½ oz/ton gold rock!). The historical resource estimate was based on 16 core holes, drilled by Hecla, Molycorp and Duval, that tested the swarm of carbonatite dikes. Rare Element has drilled another 8 core holes into the same general area confirming the historical drilling results. Based on nearby target areas with significant REE mineralization, additional potential resources are likely to be found in and around Bull Hill. A reasonable goal for exploration is to define a deposit of 10 to 20 million tonnes ranging between 3 and 5% REO. At $400 per ton, a potential resource of 10 million tons or more has a huge value, and this is also true if recoveries would be as low as 50%.
Therefore, actually, the potential rare earth’s value rivals OR EXCEEDS the potential value of RES’s portion of the gold deposits.
Reminder: Rare Element Resources, not Newmont, owns 100% of the rare-earth deposits on the entire Bear Lodge property. They are not part of the Sundance Joint Venture.
Rare Element’s REE deposit is one of the largest disseminated REE deposits in the world.
But, what the heck are “rare-earths”?
Some links for those who wish to dig deeper:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_earth_elements
http://www.rareelementresources.com/s/Overview.asp
http://www.rareelementresources.com/s/Uses.asp
Rare-earths are the 15 lanthanide-series elements. They are called “the catalysts for high-tech living”. Bear Lodge has mostly the light rare-earths including within the REE component approximately 46% lanthanum, 32% cerium, 4% praseodymium, 14% neodymium and 1% samarium, in the non-oxide material.
China produces most of the world’s rare earths, but Mountain Pass in California has re-opened, and Mount Weld in Australia is being developed.
There are many uses for rare-earths, such as catalysts, super magnets, metal alloys, phosphors, magnetic refrigeration, most electronic devices and the electronic components of hybrid cars.
Before getting to the plan, and hearing the GOLD part of the story (Reminder: there is a significant gold deposit and perhaps multiple deposits here), look at the all-important management team.
The deep experience of the management team of Rare Element Resources includes senior positions with Teck Cominco Ltd., Miramar Mining Corporation, Phelps Dodge and other successful resource companies. We strongly believe that there is significant benefit for a junior dealing with a major partner to have core management with significant major mining company experience. RES finds itself in this situation. Many juniors that we have had experience with in the past simply assume (to their and their shareholders future, great displeasure) that “build it and they will come” applies to their major partner. They feel if the gold, silver or copper is THERE, the major will recognize it and simply hand over a pile of cash (or shares). Nothing could be further from the truth. Sophisticated negotiation, valuation models, psychology of the large company, office politics and big-picture corporate planning all come into play. Woe to the junior mining executive or geologist, no matter how bright, who doesn’t get it all.
We feel the Rare Element team “gets it”.
Below are a few, but by no means all, of the important people who help run this amazing junior.
Donald E. Ranta, Ph.D., P.Geo. - President, CEO & Director
Drawn to the company less than a year ago because of the opportunity he saw for association with another great discovery and his stock options, Don Ranta is an exploration and evaluation executive experienced in planning, implementing, and directing successful mineral exploration and acquisitions throughout the world. He has led innovative exploration efforts resulting in the discovery of several major deposits including Montana’s McDonald gold (13 + million ounces: you’ve heard of The Seven-Up Pete?) and Mexico’s Santa Gertrudis gold ore bodies (See Animas Resources - www.animasresources.com/s/Home.asp). He contributed to the discovery of the famed Sleeper deposit (the richest Nevada deposit yet discovered and one of the lowest cost producers, some veins running over 100 ounces gold per ton). He serves as a director of Animas Resources Ltd. Dr. Ranta was Vice President of Exploration at Echo Bay Mines and Manager/Vice President for North American Exploration at Phelps Dodge. He holds a Ph.D. in geology/geological engineering from the Colorado School of Mines, an MS from the Mackay School of Mines, and a BS from the University of Minnesota.
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James Clark, Ph.D, L.Geo. - Vice President, Exploration
Jim Clark brings 30 years of mining industry experience having planned, organized, and conducted all aspects of project exploration and target generation work as an employee and a consultant for Molycorp, Hecla and others. Dr. Clark has extensive supervisory and project management experience in exploration programs for industrial minerals, precious and base metals, and specialty metals. He was senior geologist, then, exploration supervisor, for Hecla from 1986 -- 1992, played a key role in identifying Rare Element Resources’ current Bear Lodge REE resource and the property’s underlying gold mineralization potential. (Meaning, he knows this property AND its REE potential as well or better than anyone alive does.) His consulting firm provides petrographic and microanalytical services to Barrick, Newmont, Hecla, AngloGold, CVRD and others. He hold s a Ph.D. in volcanic geology and igneous petrology from the University of Oregon, an M.S. from Oregon State University and a B.S. from Ohio State.
M. Norman Anderson, P.Eng. - Director
Since 1987, Mr. Anderson has been an active consultant, with a focus on due diligence and evaluation for financial institutions and mining companies. Prior to this, he worked for Cominco, during which time he spent a four-year period in an executive position with Amax. In 1978, he became President and Chief Operating Officer, and in 1980, he assumed complete responsibility for Cominco’s business as Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Anderson brings a wealth of experience in specialized metals.
Norman Burmeister, P.Eng. - Director
Mr. Burmeister graduated from the Colorado School of Mines in Mining Geology and has over 40 years of experience in the mining industry. He was Chief Geologist for Silver Standard Resources from 1965 to 1978. In 1980, he founded Bull Run Corporation and served as its Chairman and CEO until 1992, finding, exploring and developing a significant gold producer in Nevada. Bull Run was the second mining stock I ever recommended (late 1981), and we made a very large profit!
Gregory McKelvey, MS Geol - Director
Mr. McKelvey has more than forty years of extensive, international experience in Latin America, Africa, and Europe in expanding responsibilities for significant mining companies such as Kennecott, Cominco, Homestake and Phelps Dodge. He is currently President of Animas Resources Ltd.
Gold— The Newmont Joint Venture
Newmont Mining and Rare Element Resources created the “Sundance” joint venture on the Bear Lodge Property in 2006. Newmont has the right to finance the first five years of exploration by spending $5 million to earn 65%, and has the opportunity to earn another 15% by completing a positive feasibility study with no expenditures by RES.
The Property is located in the Bear Lodge Mountains of northeastern Wyoming, near the western end of the northern Black Hills gold belt located in South Dakota and Wyoming. Gold mineralization in the belt is associated with both Tertiary igneous complexes, containing approximately 7 million oz, and the Precambrian Homestake deposit that has produced more than 40 million oz. This is a prolific gold trend!
The Bear Lodge district is very similar to the more deeply eroded Cripple Creek complex in Colorado. The Cripple Creek mining district hosts deposits. Total gold production plus resources for the district are now more than 30 million ounces. Gold occurs primarily in narrow vein sets over a vertical range in excess of 1,000 meters; and economically important gold mineralization also is present near surface in low-grade, bulk-tonnage deposits currently being mined in brecciated intrusive rocks.
The Bear Lodge property has many widespread gold occurrences and excellent potential for economic gold deposits in multiple targets.
These targets include both near-surface low-grade deposits, similar to those at Cripple Creek, and also potential high-grade gold mineralization at depth. Preliminary drilling of 26 holes by Newmont plus earlier holes by others suggests that potential inferred resources of at least 5 million oz in three deposits have been tested with widely spaced holes. A reasonable goal for the exploration program is to find total resources of approximately 7 to 12 million oz of gold contained within 250 to 400 million tonnes averaging between 0.4 and 1.0 gram of gold per tonne. (Please do not misinterpret the low grade as indicative of commercial difficulty – costs of production are the other half of the equation and, given that much potential ore actually starts at surface, there is every reason to believe that gold mining at Bear Lodge is exciting, even at dramatically lower gold prices.) The mineral system also has excellent potential for Cripple Creek-type high-grade gold mineralization at depth. One of the goals of the program has to be to find a surface deposit with grades of 1 gram per tonne or better so mine capital investment can be paid back quickly. Assuming the goals above are achieved, Rare Element Resources’ 20-35% portion of the potential total gold resource could be a minimum of 1.4 million oz and as much as 4 million oz of gold.
Drilling has been constrained within previously permitted drill sites and a total disturbed area of five acres. Many exploration targets having excellent potential for gold deposits have been off limits to any new roads or drill sites. A new Plan of Operations should be approved by the US Forest Service in the second half of 2008 allowing hundreds of drill sites on up to 200 acres of disturbance and providing great flexibility (see further comment below).
Highlights of the 26 holes drilled by Newmont into the Carbon and Taylor gold targets during 2006 and 2007 show long intercepts of continuous low-grade gold mineralization, many beginning at the surface and extending to depth. This is typical of the near-surface low-grade gold mineralization being discovered in the Sundance venture area and similar to that at Cripple Creek. Mineralization remains open in several directions in all of the gold targets.
Advantages provided to Rare Element Resources by the Sundance gold venture include:
· No expense or substantial effort required by Company personnel;
· Full financing for the first five years;
· Project management and technical expertise provided by Newmont;
· Added credibility of working with a major gold company;
· Potential to be a substantial gold producer as a junior partner.
The gold exploration venture with Newmont is the best way to reap full advantage from the Bear Lodge gold potential, and Rare Element Resources will continue evaluating the potential of its rare-earths deposits.
Rare Element Resources’ tight capital structure is very favorable and should be maintained (currently only 23 million shares outstanding, 26 million fully diluted and cash on hand is about US$ 2.5 million). It would be “natural” for the company to pull a major or an Asian entity that desperately needs rare earth element “feedstock” into a joint venture on the REE side of the Bear Lodge asset. If successful in making such a partnership, the company would probably need to raise no more than a couple million dollars or so over the next 18 months, and, even that, at hopefully well north of $2/share. In creating another Newmont-like deal (probably on even better terms), the Asian conglomerate or major would bear the brunt of development expenses and be put on a short lease to produce by RES. This would greatly benefit existing shareholders and those entering in the current range.
Given that the GOLD IS THERE, let’s look at some potential “flies in the ointment”, the types of questions every good mining analyst should ask BEFORE considering valuation vs. market capitalization for the stock price.
1. Water, roads, electricity, infrastructure:
· The project area is 6 miles from Sundance, Wyoming, which is on an interstate highway about 25 miles west of the South Dakota line. I am told on good authority (I have yet to do a site visit but hope to before November 1 if possible.) that a considerable number of four-wheel-drive trails have been cleared during previous exploration and logging activities right up to and through the property. Therefore, the roads and access are excellent by mining standards.
· The property is less than one mile from the regional power grid, and there is nearby access to Burlington Northern rail transport at Moorcroft about 40 miles away. We